Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 14.604795 16.984983 19.574062 22.592244 26.006360 29.740775 34.126656
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 10.534439 13.707322 17.493980 22.312321 28.242931 35.264224 44.162218
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 8.188157 11.747569 16.346744 22.643652 30.947022 41.418151 55.501133
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 6.388537 10.013845 15.042842 22.383998 32.653569 46.310988 65.606174
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 5.487822 9.283141 14.875673 23.488361 36.135436 53.692681 79.490477
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 4.638870 8.432832 14.347755 23.916425 38.598256 59.777735 91.996197
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 3.899605 7.595893 13.675406 23.973446 40.427675 65.008809 103.590302
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 3.311906 6.890606 13.081817 24.028111 42.181788 70.178050 115.376012
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 3.100806 6.813281 13.507762 25.761971 46.700497 79.817198 134.482236
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 2.823261 6.554692 13.568248 26.855211 50.232272 88.124336 152.027205
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 2.572300 6.299391 13.589438 27.858519 53.664484 96.463462 170.091905
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 2.238054 5.805149 13.085320 27.835031 55.290140 101.920996 183.805329
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 1.843203 5.109611 12.108626 26.852914 55.198233 104.630743 193.423089
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 1.527582 4.527596 11.274822 26.044372 55.343681 107.758953 203.972810
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 1.339899 4.215188 10.964016 26.239202 57.373768 114.301208 220.743542
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 1.141112 3.826107 10.419700 25.875084 58.274924 118.862295 234.308049
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 1.067783 3.761754 10.611226 27.099676 62.406140 129.550620 259.305508
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.959985 3.572515 10.473244 27.573704 65.039563 137.591963 279.925348
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.844887 3.332158 10.170361 27.634207 66.811260 144.097671 298.065546
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.744841 3.112534 9.884142 27.694518 68.574794 150.675205 316.660394
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.732798 3.182387 10.373163 29.654063 74.574167 165.837423 352.108486
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.691840 3.142781 10.558356 30.888633 79.069705 178.259339 382.908439
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 0.649933 3.089528 10.697557 32.021061 83.416399 190.606656 414.118906